It’s Sunday evening, and the Monday dread has arrived on schedule. For two years you have wondered whether to leave your field and decided, each time, to give it a few more months.

Should I change careers? No study can answer that for you, but research points to a better way to decide: pin down what is actually wrong, test the new work in small and cheap ways before you commit, and count the costs honestly. It also suggests that people stuck on the fence may give staying put too much weight. In economist Steven Levitt’s coin-toss experiment, published in 2021, undecided people facing important choices such as quitting a job who were told by a coin to make a change reported being happier six months later than those told to stay put.¹ The volunteers chose to take part, and quitting a job is not the same as changing careers, so treat that as a reason to take change seriously, not as a verdict.

Should I change careers? Start with what is actually wrong

Before deciding whether to change careers, work out which part of your working life is the problem, because a new career fixes only some of them. A 2005 meta-analysis led by Amy Kristof-Brown treated a person’s fit with the job, the organization, the work group and the supervisor as four separate things, and found that each was generally linked to how people felt and behaved at work, including how long they stayed.²

That distinction matters because each kind of misfit has a different cure. A clash with a manager or a team can often be solved by moving to another team or employer in the same line of work. A clash with an organization’s values or pace points to a different employer. Only a poor fit with the work itself, the daily tasks and what they ask of you, clearly calls for a different career. Pooled studies like these show which things go together; they cannot promise that fixing one will change how you feel.

Picture a hospital pharmacist who dreads going in. If the dread comes from a manager who checks every decision and a rota that never changes, another hospital or a different pharmacy setting may solve it. If it comes from the work, checking prescriptions all day when she would rather be teaching or building things, no new employer will help. And if what you feel is closer to exhaustion than boredom, it is worth reading how the WHO defines burnout before you decide, because a draining job and the wrong career call for different moves.

Staying put is a decision too, and people may overrate it

Staying in your current career feels like not deciding, but it is a choice with its own costs. Steven Levitt, whose coin-toss experiment was published in the Review of Economic Studies in 2021, read his results as a sign that people may be too cautious about life-changing choices.¹

Two findings from decision research fit the pull of the familiar. One pattern in prospect theory is the extra weight people give to losses, as our guide to how we weigh gains and losses when we decide explains. Regret can mislead you too: a 1995 review by psychologists Thomas Gilovich and Victoria Medvec concluded that actions produce more regret in the short term, while things people failed to do produce more regret in the long run.³

Our illustration, not a finding: each Sunday the case for leaving has to argue its way past a pay cut, retraining and starting again as a beginner. The case for staying is never written down, although another year of work that drains you is a cost too, and the safest-feeling choice this month is not always the one you will be glad of later.

The study

Limited evidence

Letting a coin decide: Levitt's online experiment, 2021

People stuck on a decision, from quitting a job to going back to school, flipped a virtual coin on a website, and heads usually meant making the change. Two and six months later they, and sometimes a friend or family member they had named, reported what they had done and how happy they were. For important decisions, those told by the coin to make a change were more likely to do so and reported being happier at the later survey.¹

Levitt states the caveats himself: the volunteers were far from representative, not everyone answered the follow-up surveys, and happiness was self-reported. The coin also shifted only a modest share of big decisions, and the most popular important question was about quitting a job rather than changing careers.¹ Six months is also a short horizon.

The short horizon matters because early lifts can fade. A 2005 study of managers by Wendy Boswell and colleagues found that satisfaction tended to be low before a voluntary job change, rise just after it and then decline, a pattern the authors called the honeymoon-hangover effect.⁴ That was a move between jobs, not careers, but it is a good reason to judge any change over a longer stretch than the first few good weeks.

In practice, give staying the same scrutiny as leaving. Next to what a change would cost you, write what a few more years in your current career would cost in energy, skills and options, and hold both lists to the same standard of evidence.

Plenty of people switch, but nobody counts career changes

There is no official count of how often people change careers. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says it has never tried to estimate the number, because no consensus has emerged on what a career change is.⁵ Is a teacher who becomes a school principal changing careers? A software engineer who moves into product management? A nurse who retrains as a data analyst?

What BLS does count is jobs and occupations. People in the US born from 1957 to 1964 held an average of 12.9 jobs from age 18 to 58, according to a 2025 BLS release, but a job here means an uninterrupted spell with one employer, not a new line of work.⁶ Separately, BLS projects that in an average year from 2025 to 2035, about 5.5 percent of US workers will leave their occupation for a different one, roughly one worker in 18.⁷ Its definition covers any move to a different occupation, so this is a broad measure of movement, not a count of dramatic reinventions.⁸

The lesson is reassuring rather than instructive: moving between occupations is ordinary, so wanting to is not a sign that something is wrong with you. But an average cannot tell you whether a particular change suits you; only your own evidence can.

Myth

Official statistics show the average person changes careers several times.

Fact

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics says it has never estimated career changes, because nobody agrees on what counts as one.

Try the work before you commit to it

Career changers tend to learn what they want by trying things, not by thinking harder. In her book Working Identity, first published in 2003 and updated in 2023, the organizational researcher Herminia Ibarra argues that the usual advice to know what you want before you act is backward: knowing, she says, comes from doing and experimenting.⁹ The book draws on her in-depth research with professionals and managers in transition; it is expert analysis, not a controlled trial.

Further reading

• Working Identity: Unconventional Strategies for Reinventing Your Career

  by Herminia Ibarra

  Ibarra's case for testing a new career through small experiments and new contacts, the idea behind this guide's steps 3 and 4.

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Ibarra describes three ways people reinvent their working lives: trying new professional activities, spending time with new networks of people, and making sense of what happens in light of the possibilities that emerge.⁹ Her 1999 peer-reviewed study, based on qualitative data from professionals moving into more senior roles, described a similar cycle: observing role models, trying on “provisional selves” and judging each trial against their own standards and other people’s feedback.¹⁰ It was about promotions, not career changes, and it describes a process rather than proving one works best.

1. Plan, then leap: the usual advice is to know what you want first and then act; Ibarra argues this is backward
2. Small experiments: try new professional activities in ways that are cheap to reverse
3. New people: spend time with networks in the field you are considering
4. Make sense of it: after each step, update what you want in light of what you learned

An accountant drawn to teaching might tutor two evenings a month, sit in on a friend’s class and take one short course. Each step answers a question that no amount of reflection could: do I enjoy explaining things to teenagers all day, and can I live on a teacher’s pay? If the answers disappoint, little is lost; if they encourage, the next experiment can be bigger.

Six steps from doubt to a decision

The first three steps cost little and can be reversed; the last three prepare you to act.

1. Separate the work from the job

Use the sorting exercise from the first section: list what drains you and file it under the work, the employer, the manager or team, or life outside work. Only the first points clearly to a new career.

2. Try reshaping the role you have

Job crafting means changing your job from the inside: taking on more challenging demands, cutting back hindering ones, and building up the support and resources around you. A 2017 meta-analysis of 122 samples by Cort Rudolph and colleagues linked job crafting with higher work engagement.¹¹ The authors stress that the studies were correlational and mostly measured at one point in time, so they cannot show that crafting causes engagement. To start, ask to lead a project closer to the work you are curious about, and give it a few months.

3. Run small, reversible experiments

Design two or three tests like the accountant’s, each with one question to answer, and cheap enough that a disappointing result is information rather than a setback.

4. Talk to people already doing the work

New contacts are one of the three routes Ibarra describes.⁹ Ask people in the field what surprised them about the work. If you move from exploring to applying, our guide on how to start a job search and reach out to contacts covers the next stage.

5. Work out your financial runway

A career change can mean a gap between jobs, training fees or a lower starting salary, so it helps to know how many months your savings could cover essential spending. The US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says the right size of an emergency fund depends on your situation, and it lists a loss of income among the emergencies such a fund is for. If putting money aside is hard, it notes that even a small amount can provide some security.¹² Tally your essential monthly costs with a simple budget, and count retraining costs, lost pay and any pause in retirement savings as part of the price of the change.

6. Set a decision date and what would settle it

Pick a date to decide, and write down in advance what evidence would tip you either way. If the case is still balanced when the date arrives, one limited study is relevant: Levitt’s self-selected volunteers who made important changes reported being no worse off at the first follow-up and better off at the second.¹ That is a reason not to treat staying as automatically safe, not a reason to leap untested.

WiserHours

Before you decide

• Sort what drains me into work, employer, team and life outside work
• Try reshaping my current role for a set period
• Run two or three small experiments, each with one question
• Talk to at least three people who do the work
• Know how many months my savings cover essentials
• Set a decision date and write down what would settle it

Find this checklist online:
https://wiserhours.com/career-change/should-i-change-careers/#checklist-should-i-change-careers-steps

Trial, survey or opinion: the evidence behind each step

Much career-change advice is expert opinion, and the research that exists mostly comes from related situations such as job moves and promotions. Read it as a guide to how much weight each step can bear: cheap, reversible steps need little proof; resigning needs the most evidence of your own.

Who to talk to before you decide

Most career decisions can wait, but some situations call for help first. The routes below come from the named US and UK bodies; the order, most urgent first, is ours.

• Right now: if distress about work comes with thoughts of suicide or self-harm, get help now, whatever the cause. In the US, the National Institute of Mental Health says to call or text the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, and to call 911 in life-threatening situations.¹³ In the UK, the NHS website says to call 999 or go to A&E if someone’s life is at risk or you cannot keep yourself safe, and for urgent mental health help to use 111 online or call 111 and choose the mental health option; Samaritans, on 116 123, is among the free listening services it lists.¹⁴ Outside the US and UK, call your local emergency number.
• Within weeks: if low mood, anxiety or exhaustion gets in the way of daily life, see a doctor. In the UK, the NHS says a GP can advise on treatments and help you access mental health services.¹⁴ In the US, NIMH points to the federal SAMHSA website for finding local mental health services.¹³
• Before you resign or pay for retraining: if the decision depends on your own finances, such as savings, debts, a mortgage or a pension, talk to a regulated, fee-only financial adviser. In the UK, the government-sponsored Money and Pensions Service provides free and impartial debt advice, money guidance and pension guidance.¹⁵ For debts in the US, the CFPB says credit counseling organizations, usually non-profits, can give free or low-cost advice, though counselors may charge fees for some services.¹⁶ Elsewhere, your national financial regulator can point you to regulated advice.
• As you explore: people who already do the work can tell you what a normal week involves, which no job description will.

The bottom line

Whether you should change careers depends on what is actually wrong, and you usually find that out by trying things rather than by thinking harder. Name the problem, try smaller fixes first, run cheap experiments in the new field and know your financial runway. If the case is still balanced after all that, the coin-toss evidence, limited as it is, suggests that staying put is not automatically the safe choice.