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What happiness is · Lesson 2 of 11

Why We Guess Wrong About What Will Make Us Happy

See why we expect events to hit harder and last longer than they do, and learn habits for making better guesses about your own life.

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Almost every big choice rests on a guess about how you will feel afterwards. In this lesson you will see why those guesses are so often wrong, and how to make better guesses about your own life.

We expect too much, for too long

When we imagine a future event, we expect it to hit harder and last longer than it really does. In one study, students waiting to hear which campus house they would live in expected a great year or an awful one, depending on the house. A year later, both groups were about equally happy.

Researchers call this the impact bias. The bump we picture is taller and wider than the one we actually feel.

A line chart where a high line labeled What we expect sits far above a lower line labeled What we feel, with the gap shaded. On the right, two houses, one for a person who expects a great year and one for a person who expects an awful year. Below, a calendar reading A year later and two equal smiling faces labeled About equally happy.(opens the full-size picture)
The gap between what we expect and what we feel.

We focus on one detail

Part of the reason is that we focus on one detail and forget the rest of life. In another study, people expected those living in sunny California to be happier than people in the colder Midwest. In fact, their life ratings were about the same.

Weather is just one small part of a day. Work, people, sleep and food fill far more of it, and they come with you wherever you live.

A strip titled One ordinary day, split into boxes for Work, People, Sleep and Food, with a very narrow box for Weather under a small sun. A caption says One small slice of a day.(opens the full-size picture)
Weather is one small slice of an ordinary day.

We bounce back

We also forget how well we cope. After bad news, most people slowly make sense of what happened and find a way forward. When we picture a setback in advance, we leave that part out, so we expect to feel worse for longer than we do.

A line chart with a Bad news marker. A red line labeled What we expect drops and stays low, while a green line labeled What we feel drops and then climbs back up. A note says Most people make sense of it.(opens the full-size picture)
We picture the drop, but not the climb back.

We get used to things

We also get used to change. A new phone, a pay rise or a new home feels great at first, then slowly becomes normal. Researchers call this adaptation, and it is one reason the next big purchase rarely keeps us happier for long.

Three cards, New phone, Pay rise and New home, above a line chart where the feeling rises and then slowly falls back to a dashed line labeled Back to normal. A chip says Adaptation, with the words The next big purchase rarely keeps us happier for long.(opens the full-size picture)
The lift fades as the new thing becomes normal.

But not everything fades

Adaptation has limits. Large studies that followed the same people for years found that losing a job, a serious disability or losing a partner can lower wellbeing for years.

The old claim that lottery winners end up no happier came from a tiny study. In a larger study, big winners rated their lives higher for over a decade. So “you always get used to it” is not true either.

Three cards, Losing a job, Serious disability and Losing a partner, each with a line that drops and stays low, labeled Lower for years. Below, a red-crossed card reads Lottery winners end up no happier, next to a green line labeled Rated their lives higher for 10+ years.(opens the full-size picture)
Some changes fade quickly, and some last for years.

How to guess better

Before a big choice, ask someone who is already living it how their ordinary days feel. Picture a whole normal day, not just the highlight. And when something goes wrong, remember that you will probably cope better than you expect, but reach out for support after a real loss.

Three ticked rows: two people talking, labeled Ask someone who is living it; a strip of Work, People, Sleep and Food, labeled Picture a whole normal day; and one person with an arm around another, labeled You'll likely cope better, but get support.(opens the full-size picture)
Three habits for better guesses about your own life.

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Read the full lesson script

In this lesson, you'll see why we so often guess wrong about what will make us happy, and how to make better guesses about your own life.

When we imagine a future event, we expect it to hit harder and last longer than it really does. In one study, students waiting to hear which campus house they'd live in expected a great year or an awful one, depending on the house. A year later, both groups were about equally happy.

Part of the reason is that we focus on one detail and forget the rest of life. In another study, people expected those living in sunny California to be happier than people in the colder Midwest. In fact, their life ratings were about the same. Weather is just one small part of a day.

We also forget how well we cope. After bad news, most people slowly make sense of what happened and find a way forward. When we picture a setback in advance, we leave that part out, so we expect to feel worse for longer than we do.

And we get used to change. A new phone, a pay rise or a new home feels great at first, then slowly becomes normal. Researchers call this adaptation, and it's one reason the next big purchase rarely keeps us happier for long.

But adaptation has limits. Large studies that followed the same people for years found that losing a job, a serious disability, or losing a partner can lower wellbeing for years. And the old claim that lottery winners end up no happier came from a tiny study. In a larger study, big winners rated their lives higher for over a decade.

So how do you guess better? Before a big choice, ask someone who's already living it how their ordinary days feel. Picture a whole normal day, not just the highlight. And when something goes wrong, remember that you'll probably cope better than you expect, but reach out for support after a real loss.

So remember: we expect events to hit harder and last longer than they do. We focus on one detail and forget the rest of life. And we get used to most changes, but not all. Before the next lesson, think of something you once expected to change everything, and ask yourself how long that feeling really lasted. Next, you'll see what money can and can't buy.